When it comes to generating electricity, solar is on its way to becoming the least expensive method ever created. There is some debate among experts about the timing and magnitude of solar’s cost decline. So, we gathered up every major forecast from experts like Berkeley Labs, NREL, Bloom New Energy Finance, Lazard, and Greentech Media (MacWood) and pulled them into a single, simple forecast for solar, wind, and their chief competitor, natural gas. 

While the actual cost of a solar or natural gas system varies wildly on local circumstances, the combined view across these experts is that:

  • Wind became cheaper than natural gas around 2012, with solar beating out gas in 2016
  • Solar starts to beat out wind as the cost-king around 2020.

To download this graph and see it yourself, click on the link below:

g110-FinLcoeForecast-lcoe-forecast-solar-gas-wind-2040 (pdf)

To see the original source links and calculations, click below:

Will solar, wind, or natural gas be cheapest in 2040?

 

Code: g110 FinLcoeForecast xbFact energy fact

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