Join us as we explore the history of the battery and its vital role in our clean energy future in this week’s episode featuring renowned writer, editor, journalist, and former foreign correspondent Steve LeVine.
Steve is a senior fellow on the Foresight, Strategy and Risk Initiative at the Atlantic Council and a professor at Georgetown University, where he lectures on energy security in the graduate-level Security Studies Program. He also serves as editor at large for Medium, where he writes about the relationship between science, technology, and society.
As a foreign correspondent, Steve was stationed in the former Soviet Union, Pakistan, and the Phillippines, where he represented the Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, the Washington Post, the Financial Times, and Newsweek. He has also published three books: The Oil and the Glory (2007), Putin’s Labyrinth (2008), and The Powerhouse (2015), which was long-listed for the Financial Times-Mckinsey Business Book of the Year.
Here are a few of the insights from Steve…
“A lot of people care about clean energy…So say that you don’t care about clean energy, say you don’t care about climate change, this is an economic shift, it’s making a whole industry on the planet obsolete, that’s internal combustion and it’s putting another one in its place. The biggest fortunes in history are earned in chaos.”
Fifteen minutes is the new three minutes. There has to be fast charge…and that’s the play..that’s the investment play…is that someone is going to figure out establishing that network or the technology that makes that network work.
One can say that the 20th Century, the global economy of the 20th Century was invented by electricity, cheap electricity. In the 1920s the price of electricity dropped by two thirds and suddenly you had the roaring 20s…
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Transcript
Bill Nussey:
Hello, hello, hello, and welcome to the Freeing Energy family. This is another great podcast. And today we are going to go into the deep, hard issues that are at the very, very heart of local energy. We talk a lot about policy, but there is one policy more than any other that affects this industry, and that is net metering. And today’s guest is on the vanguard of these local energy policies. And she does it in a state that leads the nation and arguably the world when it comes to clean energy and clean local energy. So I’m very, very excited to introduce today, the CEO of California Solar & Storage Association, Bernadette Del Chiaro. So welcome Bernadette. Great to have you here.
Steve:
This is an inflection point. A lot of people care about clean energy, but say you don’t care about clean energy. Say you don’t care about climate change. This is an economic shift. It’s making a whole industry on the planet obsolete, that’s internal combustion, and it’s putting another one in its place. The biggest portions in history are earned in chaos.
Sam Easterby:
How did the 220 year old invention of the battery suddenly become the most important part of our clean energy future? Renowned journalist, editor and Atlantic Council, senior fellow Steve LeVine joins host Bill Nussey and shares how the dramatic recent innovations in battery technology will change your world in just five years and completely redefine entire industries. This is the Freeing Energy Podcast, and these are the personal stories from local energy champions and leaders in the world of renewable energy that are shaping our future.
Bill:
Welcome friends at Freeing Energy. I am deeply grateful every time you spend a few minutes to listen in on our podcasts. I hope you find them useful and interesting because almost all of us are working towards the same goal of accelerating the shift to clean energy. And in Freeing Energy, we’re trying to do it a small way with local energy. And I hope you find our guests inspiring. Today’s guest has actually been… I mean, is genuinely an inspiration to me for years.
Bill:
Steve LeVine is a journalist, an author, and from my personal perspective, he’s the world’s best battery historian and storyteller. So if you want to understand the color and the people and the heroes that has led to batteries changing the world and vehicles and on the grid, I can’t think of anyone better than Steve, who’s telling those stories to the world. Steve, welcome to today’s podcast.
Steve:
Thanks so much, Bill.
Bill:
You have a really extraordinary background. I can’t say I’ve met anybody like you, and I can’t possibly go through all the things that you’ve done. But just make sure if you’re listening to this that you go to the website and check out his bio because it’s pretty fascinating. But very briefly, I first ran across Steve when I was reading a book called The Powerhouse, and it was early in my research to understand batteries and Powerhouse was the top of the list book you need to read it. It’s about the efforts at Argonne National Laboratory to create a next generation battery.
Bill:
And Steve went and embedded for a while with that group and was part of the discussions and really was more than a fly on the wall. And he told the story. And in fact, one of the main protagonists in his book, Jeff Chamberlain, who worked at Argonne at the time, was a guest in our previous podcast here, number 11, and he talked about… He’s now running a venture capital firm that goes after, well, batteries. Steve’s also got some really cool books. One’s called Putin’s Labyrinth and the other is The Oil and The Glory.
Bill:
And I’m an avid reader of Steve’s frequent articles at Medium where he’s an editor-at-large, and also writes a blog, which is a must read blog, called The Mobilist, and it covers the future of batteries, electric vehicles, and autonomous mobility. Hugely popular topics with all of us here in the Freeing Energy land. Steve, you’re like a real live journalist and an investigative reporter. You’ve embedded yourself in places as far flung as Russia and Argonne Labs. I mean, it’s pretty diverse.
Bill:
You were a foreign correspondent for 18 years in the former Soviet Union, Pakistan, and the Philippines, running a Bureau for the Wall Street Journal, and before that, writing for The New York Times, The Financial Times, and Newsweek. Holy cow. What was that like? I mean, I’ve never come close to doing anything like that. I don’t know anyone has. What’s what’s life like when you’re living in these places and reporting on the people and the politics on the spot?
Steve:
It’s fun.
Bill:
It’s fun?
Steve:
Yeah. One big thing that makes it stand out is you’re the only guy there. If you’re in a place like the United States or Europe, you’re one of a multitude or herd of journalists trying to find some slice of some event, some scoop. Whereas Uzbekistan, there is no one there. Former Soviet Union, I was reporting on eight new countries, Central Asia, those countries called The Stans, we know as The Stans, and then the caucuses.
Steve:
You wake up and it’s, “So where am I going today? Am I going to go to Georgia? Maybe I should go to Azerbaijan. I haven’t been to Kyrgyzstan in a while.” So that’s one thing. These names and these places do not float off people’s tongues. It’s on no one’s mind. How do I figure out what’s going on here, these places that have never had journalists, right? Remember, you were growing up, look at the former Soviet Union, 11 time zones. There’s one dot, Moscow, and then everything else is blank, right?
Steve:
Those were a blank slate, and I arrived 16 days after the Soviet Union broke up. It’s really learning from scratch, what are these places, but then how do you make the folks in Minnesota interested and understand, right? What’s the tapestry against which these places fit? How do the dots connect? Why do I care about Tajikistan? It was the most everyday challenging place, personally challenging, spiritually versus a place like Afghanistan, Pakistan. They are places that are spiritually uplifting because of the way the people are, and they make you want to love them.
Steve:
But former Soviet Union, the most gratifying intellectually of the places I’ve been posted.
Bill:
That’s just an extraordinary set of experiences you have, and obviously we are all grateful that you went there to help us understand what was happening. One of the things I want to talk about today is the stories that you tell and the perspectives that you bring. But before we talk about your stories, I’d like to just get a quick piece of advice from you for storytellers.
Bill:
So many of the people who listen in on this are entrepreneurs or want to be entrepreneurs or want to be advocates for change, and they believe that it’s not just exclusively at the top-down policy-driven giant government billion dollar stuff that we can affect this change. We can also do it at the local level where individuals, homeowners, communities, neighborhoods, small business, can affect change for themselves and generate their own electricity and take control. Energy democracy as so many call it.
Bill:
You bring storytelling to something that’s very dry. And I love reading your stuff and hopefully you’ll pick up a few more readers after listening to you today. What do you advise someone, a young writer or a storyteller or someone has to make a presentation, what would you say?
Steve:
First of all, it’s not dry. It’s totally interesting. I mean, the battery story, the electricity story. This is one way I think about this. My daughters have both taken calculus, and they’re totally bored with math. I said, “Did your teachers tell you about Newton and about lead nets? That calculus was invented by two people, two different places at exactly the same time? Why did they invent that? What was the thing around them? Who were these guys? What was their historical times? What made them invent calculus?”
Steve:
If they had said that to my daughters, they would be fascinated. They would want to learn calculus. In batteries, the electric story, it’s like that. Who were the folks behind it? What drove it? The battery goes back to 1799. Alessandro Volta invents the battery. He’s in a hate relationship with Galvani, and so that drove Volta to invent the battery. Napoleon summons Volta to show him the battery. It’s a long story. It’s a totally fascinating story. Get the characters. What are the dots?
Steve:
Set against what context? You have to know that, and you have to tell your story.
Bill:
Steve, I love that, man. As somebody who spends some time trying to impart things that can be dry to others and make them a little more lively, that is the best advice that I’ve heard. And now I get a little bit glimpse into the secret of why I enjoy reading your stuff so very much. Thank you for sharing that. Well, let’s jump into one of the most popular topics here at Freeing Energy, which is batteries. I get excited about batteries.
Bill:
Clearly you get excited about batteries and you do it by, like you were explaining, you bring in the nexus of people and the science and the markets and the context of history and personalities. But in a broader sense, what’s the big deal about batteries? Why should we care about a better battery?
Steve:
Global economy of the 20th century was invented by electricity, cheap electricity. In the 1920s, the price of electricity dropped by two-thirds. And suddenly, you had the roaring ’20s. You had the automobile, and then you had the age of convenience, appliances. And we’ve just gone from there. What is a battery? A battery is a container of electricity. Your world, the reason you’re able to operate your smartphone, all of those have lithium ion batteries in them. The biggest companies in the world are able to operate.
Steve:
The two biggest inventions of the last 75 years really are the transistor, 1948, and the lithium ion battery, 1981. One enabled the other. It’s our economy. And right now we’ve had a stunted Western economy with stagnant wages, stagnant productivity growth. Since the 1970s, there’s the chance because battery prices are dropping like crazy and are going to. Within like the next two, three years, the cost of the lithium ion battery is going to become the equivalent with combustion. This is an inflection point.
Steve:
A lot of people care about clean energy, but say you don’t care about clean energy. Say you don’t care about climate change. This is an economic shift. It’s making a whole industry on the planet obsolete, that’s internal combustion, and it’s putting another one in its place. The biggest fortunes in history are earned in chaos. That’s one thing. On the grid, what is the biggest cost of electricity on the grid? It’s that hour and a half or two hours at night when we’re all at home at the same time, in our kitchens, every appliance is on.
Steve:
We’re peaking, and the electric grid has to be adjusted for that peak. Well, if you can put batteries into that grid so that when you’re going to that peak, you’re feeding off of the batteries and you don’t need the peaker capability. That’s another big shakeup in the economy. It totally changes the economics for utilities.
Bill:
I’m reminded of another book of enjoyed, Vaclav Smil’s book Energy and Civilization, and he makes many great points. And one of them is that of all the commodities that we depend on in civilization, electricity remains completely in that you can’t store it and you have to produce it the very second you’re going to consume it. Oil, obviously very different than that. You can get it out of the ground one day and use it much later. Food, anything else you can distribute, but not electricity.
Steve:
The context of the battery is changing right now. When I started looking at batteries 10 years ago, when I started researching the book, they were regarded as hopeless. Okay, how are we going to make it just 1% better? This forecast, let’s make them so that you can have cost parody with combustion. That was like flying to Jupiter. In 10 years, it’s all changed, and it’s really just changed in the last two years. We’re right on the cusp of these huge advances. Get ready for your world to change over the next five years.
Bill:
That’s prescient words, and I’m on board with you. And I think there’s a couple thousand people that are going to hear this over time and they’re going to agree with you. I have been accused on this podcast multiple times of being Battery Bill. Alliteration there. I feel like I am.
Sam Easterby:
Just how big is the opportunity in energy storage? Well, let’s start with the money. Energy storage, and especially batteries, are already big business. The global lithium ion battery market alone was valued at $36.7 billion in 2019 and is expected to hit $129.3 billion by 2027, with a projected capitalized annual growth rate of 18% from 2020 to 2027. What’s driving all this expected growth? Electric vehicles, large scale energy storage, and stationary standby applications are expected to drive parts of the lithium ion battery market size.
Sam Easterby:
But the residential sector is expected to account for the largest share in the energy storage market by application, with a majority of the demand coming from Germany, Australia, and the United States. There are countless opportunities for innovators and entrepreneurs all across the renewable energy spectrum, and energy storage is no exception. From advances in battery chemistries and materials science to evolving new storage applications and business models, there are innumerable deep veins to be mined, as it were, and gains to be made.
Sam Easterby:
So if your interests and passions are driven by the possibilities in our new energy future, go ahead, pick a lane. Any lane. The road ahead is wide open. Now let’s get back to Bill and Steve to learn more about where all this is headed.
Bill:
While we’re talking about the profound coming impact on batteries, you have used in several of your articles a term called the super battery, which is just on its face pretty provocative. Can you tell me and tell us a little bit about what is a super battery? And if batteries are already going to be so cool, why is a super battery even cooler?
Steve:
This loops back to your question, how do you write? I made up that term. I’m storytelling. I want to tell the story of Argonne and make the drama understandable to a general audience. And I can just tell you, in pitching that book, no one, my agent, the publishers, my own family and friends, like everyone, “Do not write this book? It’s a boring book. It’s boring idea. Why would you ever do that? You just wrote a book about Vladimir Putin. Well, how do you get to batteries?”
Bill:
That is the question.
Steve:
Yeah. I asked the battery guys at Argonne, “Can I call the next thing that you’re trying to make the super battery? You got the battery. We’ll call the next one the super battery. This is something that an average person can understand.” Yes. Yes you can. And then I renamed their chemistry. So their chemistry is called NMC. They’re trying to invent the next version of it. I say, “Can I call it NMC 2.0 that you’re trying to invent?” They say yes. Those are writerly devices. No one else called them that, but I can tell you what they are.
Steve:
NMC is the battery formulation that’s in almost every electric car except for Elon Musk, and he has just a slight difference. Instead of manganese, he’s using aluminum. It’s NCA instead of NMC. When I was writing the book, the Chevy Volt, the Nissan Leaf, these cars are getting 37 miles on a charge. The Leaf, 84 miles. This is not enough, right? You got range anxiety. How do you get a 200 mile car and NMC 2.0? That’s how. They’re struggling. How do we juice up the NMC and get to the next stage?
Steve:
But the super battery, the super battery, it’s this dream thing out there where batteries… It’s not a specific target more than it sort of enables everything, right? You make some big fantastic breakthrough where you have let’s say a 300 mile car, a 400 mile car, a battery that costs $2,000 instead of $15,000. So the car can be sold for $20,000, not $50,000. That’s a super battery.
Bill:
Got it. I’m reading some of your recent articles. I think you’ve applied the term super battery to the upcoming solid-state batteries.
Steve:
Yes.
Bill:
I loved reading your interviews with QuantumScape and others. To the person who’s not a battery expert and not a scientist at Argonne National Labs, what is a solid-state battery and why should I care?
Steve:
It is a battery that can take your car 500 miles and cost the same as a gasoline driven car. Lithium, the lightest metal on the periodic table, is also incredibly volatile. When it’s in contact with moisture, it goes haywire. That’s where you get explosions. Exxon actually invented the lithium battery in the mid ’70s, but it couldn’t make them work because their lab kept blowing up. John Goodenough is the inventor of the nervous system of the lithium ion battery, the cathode, and his brainstorm was, okay, we can’t make pure lithium work.
Steve:
It’s not going to work in the battery. Can we put bits of lithium in? The current batteries we have, it’s two electrodes, it’s the cathode, and then the anode, and the lithium ions shuttle. When you’re charging, they go to one side of the battery. When you unplug and you start using your car or your device, they move to the other side. When they’re moving to the anode, they embed in graphite. Just sprinkles of lithium.
Steve:
But the Holy Grail the whole time was, can we use just a chunk, a good chunk of pure lithium metal and get all the energy, all the energy of lithium, the cost, the energy, all of that. What solid-state is, let’s get rid of that liquid electrolyte, which lies between the two electrodes, and let the lithium ions flow. Let’s get rid of that liquid and put a solid. If it’s solid, like a thin film separator, let’s put something there, and so then you don’t have the trouble with moisture.
Steve:
But the trouble is as soon as you put a separator in, how do lithium ions move through one solid move through another solid? Anyway, they’ve been working on this 45 years, 45 years, but now they’re there.
Bill:
So it’s real now. It’s starting to happen, and you’ve written a lot about some of the pioneering companies that are bringing this to market. Who are they? What’s their story?
Steve:
We’ve got these companies, QuantumScape, that’s the company. It’s Silicon Valley that’s got the most attention. They were installed for 10 years. They came out in September, but they say that they’re going to be in VW EVs by the middle of the decade. That’s big. But then there are a couple of others. Solid Power, they’re in a death grip. Who’s going to be first? They hate each other. This is another thing. Battery people, this is collegial thing, not the lithium metal guys. They hate each other. They talk locker room talk about each other, and it’s very exciting.
Steve:
I don’t know what it is about lithium metal, but it brings out the primordial, the caveman in these battery guys.
Bill:
I think Thomas Edison had a famous quote, that batteries bring out a man’s capacity for lying. The genesis of batteries being hyped and fought over is back a lot longer than people may realize.
Steve:
Bill, that’s interesting you raised that. A big mystery is we know someone’s lying. We know because of the history, right? Battery people have been lying since batteries were invented. Who’s the liar? Everyone is saying with great conviction, “I’ve got the stuff.” Anyway, I don’t want to go too far with it, but just say that they’re not all telling the truth.
Bill:
I’ve spent decades in the tech industry and what’s remarkable to me is that people in that industry assume that progress will happen fast. Not always linearly, but it will happen fast and it’s an inevitability. Only a question of time when a better hard drive or a faster microprocessor. It’s really just a question of when. It’s usually pretty reasonable to guess within a year or two when something’s going to happen. But you talk about the energy industry and the automobile industry.
Bill:
They haven’t had a pure technology play like solar and batteries ever. It’s been a fuel-based industry. The enormous cost changes that are occurring, have no precedent in their models, particularly in the grid side where I spent a lot of focus. These absolutely plummeting costs are just wrecking their models. And that’s one of the reasons that the utility industry is so unprepared for solar and batteries.
Bill:
In contrast, at least if you read the press releases from General Motors and Ford, they’re really leaning into this, almost betting the companies on making EVs work if you read their press releases. That kind of jumps into my next set of questions, as we start to wrap up today. Inexpensive safe batteries at scale is happening. And as it gets more available and lower costs, the whole electric vehicle revolution is taking on more and more momentum. The biggest companies are getting behind it. But that’s just a part of the story.
Bill:
You mentioned it earlier today, the notion of range anxiety, and what are we going to do to charge all these vehicles that historically have been charged with oil effectively? You’ve written a lot about the charging networks and what that means. Sometimes I wonder, how important are charging networks, because I have an EV and I’d charge it in my garage 99.9% of the time. Help us understand how electric vehicles are impacted, not just by batteries, but the ability to charge them.
Steve:
It’s a key factor. The shift to a mass market is hindered by whether someone thinks they’re going to be able to charge up their car and that they’re going to be able to charge it up fast. I think what people are missing when they’re thinking about what’s coming is the people who have bought electric cars to date, including you, are a certain class of people. They’re first movers.
Bill:
Nerds I think is the term.
Steve:
Yeah. They’re either green, or they’re trying to make a public statement. Look at me. Look what I drive, right? It’s the ones who are driving the Model S, the Tesla, or who will buy Lucid. That’s not the mass market. You think because you charge in your garage, that’s what everyone is going to do. That’s the future. I’m saying with my vet, and I’ve been riding this, and so I’m putting my reputation on it, that isn’t how it’s going to happen. That’s not the future. The way that people really are is, “I’ve got to be at work in 30 minutes,” and rush into their car.
Steve:
They forgot to charge it up. On the way to work, they want a fast charge, or, “I got to get the kids to soccer.” Did you charge? No, I didn’t charge. Oh, fast charge. What is really going to happen is that there will be and there has to be a network that people know about and there have to be fast charged. That’s the investment play. Anyway, those are two different things. One is human psychology. I’m going to buy the car when I know I can charge it up and then I can charge it up fast. And what is fast? My definition of fast is that the psychology will change.
Steve:
You won’t insist on three minute. You fill up your tank in three minutes, 20 gallons. 15 minutes, that’s fast enough. You’ll just get used to getting out of your car, buying a candy bar, making a phone call, checking your emails, 15 minutes is the new three minutes. But when does this happen? This happens in the second half of the decade and going into the 2030s. It happens after cost parody is reached, and then it takes off. What do the people who set up the fast charge network, what do they charge?
Steve:
They charge the same price as you pay to fill up your gasoline tank. Right now the average is $50. There’s what I think is a crazy notion out there that electricity is going to be almost nothing. It’s going to be cheap. No. Think about what you pay for HBO. You have HBO in your house or Netflix. What do you pay for your smartphone service? Why aren’t those free? No, it’s not going to be free, and it’s going to be a lot. It’s going to be for fast charge. And the people who figure that out are going to make a lot of money.
Bill:
Well, that’s a provocative position you’ve taken. And if people want to explore it, you’ve written some articles and you’ve got a lot of comments in those articles. What I’d love to see and I believe directionally, you’re correct is that if you are going to get a faster charge, you’re going to pay more. Right now there’s a lot of policy that encumbers how you can charge, and that’s loosening up across the country. And if people are interested in that, I recommend they look at the DSIRE, D-S-I-R-E, the DSIRE database.
Bill:
They’ve got great data on the changes in policy. They’re couple of guests we’ve had on our podcast. I’d imagine we’ll see a price spread between the fastest charging and the slowest charging, and I think people will pay more. I would dispute that it’s going to go to the price of a tank of gas.
Bill:
One of the other guests we’ve had made a great point about a different topic, but Deepak Devon, a great professor at Georgia Tech who leads their distributed energy, largest lab on Georgia Tech, he makes the case that when we think about self-generation, slightly different topic but interesting insight, that the notion that I can’t disconnect from the grid because I need the full reliability of being on the grid. And he says, “Ask yourself, have you ever talked to anyone who has a cell phone and who’s cut the landline?
Bill:
50% of people have cut their landline. Anybody who says they get better reception at their house from a cell phone than what they used to get from their landline,” he said, “most people will tell you the reception’s worse or much worse.”
Steve:
Sure.
Bill:
And he said, so what people think they want, what they’re willing to forgive for other features is usually unintuitive to them until they have it. In my book, I love to quote apocryphally somewhat, Henry Ford may or may not have actually said it, but he said, “If I asked people what they wanted, they would say faster horses.” Having seen this in technology for years, people often can’t imagine what they would want until the alternative is presented to them. Either way, this stuff’s happening, man, and it’s going to happen fast and human behavior will change.
Bill:
Businesses will be created that are amazing, and others that will struggle to hang on will slip away. I think it’s an exciting time, and we are all very, very lucky to have you helping chronicle it. Yours are the first articles I read when they come out, and I look forward to continuing talking to you about this, having you on again in the future. Maybe we can put a bookmark here and come back and see in five years where the price of charging has gone. We’d love to ask all of our guests the same four questions we call the lightning round.
Bill:
Let’s just jump right in as we wrap up today’s discussion. Steve, what excites you most about the clean energy industry and the role that you’re playing in it?
Steve:
Batteries?
Bill:
Yes. Yes. All right. If you could wave a magic wand and see one thing change on the transition to clean renewable energy, what would it be?
Steve:
Fast charging everywhere.
Bill:
Man, drop the mic. This guy is wow. All right. What do you think will be the single most important change in how we generate, store, and distribute electricity in the next five years?
Steve:
Batteries that are so cheap that we’re agnostic as to what kind of car we buy.
Bill:
Awesome. And this is perhaps the most important question. We all get asked about from folks who are outside the industry who don’t know the ins and outs, what can they do to make a difference? How can they play a role? And getting educated is always important, but what do you tell folks when they ask you how can they make a difference as we transition to clean energy?
Steve:
Invent the super battery.
Bill:
All right. I love it. For anybody who listens in on Freeing Energy Podcast today, you’ve heard it here. All you have to do is invent and perfect commercialize, raise a billion dollars for the factory and bring that super battery to market, and you will have the applause and support of Steve LeVine for years to come and I think from all of us that live on planet earth as well. Well, Steve, this has been a lot of fun, and I can’t thank you enough for sharing your time with us, these great insights for the great work that you do.
Bill:
Again, thanks for taking the time and we look forward to following what you do and keeping our listeners up to date with your insights and writing.
Steve:
Thanks, Bill.
Sam Easterby:
Thank you for joining us today. You have been listening to the Freeing Energy Podcast, personal stories from the clean energy movement. Visit freeingenergy.com to learn more about clean local energy. I’m Sam Easterby. Bill Nussey is my co-host and the founder of the Freeing Energy Project. The Freeing Energy Podcast is made in partnership with Frequency Media. Subscribe to the Freeing Energy Podcast on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Google Podcast, and anywhere podcasts are found.
Sam Easterby:
Make sure more people learn about clean local energy by rating and reviewing the show on Apple Podcasts.
